Stanley's blog

Return of history

Francis Fukiyama was wrong. We have not been witnessing the end of history, but the return of history. One reason for this is that we have not learned the lessons of history.
But who did not at least think that 1989 had brought to an end four decades of Cold War in Europe and the establishment of a long term Pax Americana?

The US and Europe, led by market-obsessed economists, focussed on economic and democratic reform in Russia and anchoring former Soviet countries in first in NATO and then in the European Union. Little attention was paid to Russian sensitivities or western behaviour perceived by Russians to be humiliating. We should have recognised that permanent change had not taken place: historical Russia was on vacation. A combination of high energy prices and a populist, popular and effective President has returned Russia to its underlying imperial traditions and insecurity complex.

Balance of power and containment thinking is alive and well. Cold War II may soon be with us – indeed will be with us – if we have still to learn the cost of humiliating the Russian Bear.

Russian behaviour in Georgia and Ukraine is to be deplored, but we will not find a modus vivendi with Russia unless we give due consideration to valid Russian concerns. Incorporating Georgia and Ukraine into NATO and extending the Anti-Missile Defence System to within a few hundred kilometres of the Russian borders are provocative and always asking for trouble.

At the very least, there has to be an agreed and implementable strategy. What would have happened if Georgia were a member of NATO? Would Article 5 have been invoked against Russian aggression in Georgia? NATO leaders should by now have learned that you don’t start something you don’t know how to end. They should also have learned to tread warily with leaders of the character of President Saakashvili.

The South Ossetia/ crisis was totally predictable. The ongoing geopolitical tensions between Russia and the US, and Europe, risk escalating. Vladimir Putin has stated that the collapse of the Soviet Union was the worst geopolitical disaster of the 20th century: he means it.

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Comments

  1. Mr. crossick,

    Pardon the intrusion of someone who spends half his time in Belgium, the other half in California, note the distinction please! Your position is essentially Eurocentric and reasonable. I live in a land dominated by idiots, and if you saw the Georgian situation unfolding from here, your position might have been different. To start with, there is no unfolding; in the US we are presented with a fait accompli, always. Events leading up to any fait are very carefully controlled, ergo the Iraq war. For a fait to escalate to accompli would be a blessing, there is no accompli in Iraq or Afghanistan and neither will there be in Georgia unless the EU deftly removes our resident idiot from having anything to do with the situation.

    Our foremost Russian expert, Condoleezza Rice, is clueless, or rendered clueless by the company she keeps. There is little to expect from that department, same applies to our foreign affairs people. Our perception of Russia is elementary, and can be summed up with this simple mantra, at least they are not Muslims!

    Thank you for your insights into the ways of the world. I often wish it was as simple as our President… Sorry lost my thought there, as our President thinks it is, unfortunately nothing in this world can be that simple.

  2. Mr Crossick, I think it is an exaggeration that Georgia’s membership in NATO would have induced a war by revoking Article 5. Should Georgia became closer to NATO earlier, the Russians would have acted beforehand, or they should have thought another target. I mostly agree with what you say, but I don’t think the Russia is really in for a full-blown conflict with NATO.

    On the other hand, accepting the fact that history goes on, you also have to acknowledge demographic changes, resources found and used, and thus changes in sovereign territories. Countries come and go as well – Yugoslavia, Serbia, Belgium, Cyprus, Moldova, Georgia, just to name a few in and around the EU.

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