Let Russia Stop Iran
December 21, 2008
The constructive oped in today’s New York Times by three experienced analysts, Oded Eran, Giora Eiland and Emily Landau, concludes that the key to a tougher Security Council Resolution is Russia and that this provides an opening for Barack Obama to offer Moscow a grand bargain: the US to suspend or even cancel its Eastern Europe missiles defences plan and adopt a more cautious approach to expanding NATO. Russia, for its part, would take a tougher stance against Iran’s nuclear military programme, and stop supplying Iran with conventional weapons which are then passed to other militant groups in the region.
I don’t agree that this will put “the threat of military intervention back on the table”. If there is a clearly united line on sanctions, including oil exports and petroleum product imports and financial measures, the signs are, that with the gross oil & gas under-investment in Iran and the low price of oil, sanctions could work, if strictly applied. However, China has not been seriously addressed in the op-ed and must be included in the bargain. Dealing with Tehran through Moscow and not Beijing is fraught with danger.
I would expand the idea to a grand bargain based on a new comprehensive relationship with Russia – not just over Iran – alongside a new comprehensive relationship with Iran both being integrated internationally as responsible stakeholders. To achieve this, we must have China alongside.
Too ambitious? I would argue that expanding the project would increase the chances of success. It will also involve a degree of inclusiveness that might be regarded as refreshing by the countries involved and the world at large.
Author : Stanley Crossick